The Great Divide

August 2026  

Vermont singer-songwriter Noah Kahan's The Great Divide is a deeply personal song about distance and separation, sprinkled with the hope of reconciliation. While its inspiration is far removed from business aviation, the title seems remarkably fitting for today's market. Wherever we look, there are divides. 

Across the industry, underlying demand remains resilient, yet supply continues to struggle to keep pace. Aircraft manufacturers now measure order backlogs in years of production rather than months. Young, well-pedigreed pre-owned aircraft are exceptionally scarce, and those that can be sourced are commanding premium prices – what ever happened to value depreciation? Customers expect world-class service, yet maintenance facilities, parts suppliers, and technical talent are stretched as never before. Beyond aviation, global wealth creation continues at a remarkable pace while many households contend with high inflation, housing affordability challenges, and a brooding sense of economic uncertainty. Two very different realities appear to be unfolding at the same time. 

But perhaps the divides themselves are not the most interesting story. 

Over the years, one lesson has consistently shaped our research. Headlines can identify what happened. Trends suggest where we may be headed. Patterns, however, tend to reveal something more important. They encourage us to ask not only, "What could this mean?" but also, "What else could this mean?" More often than not, the second question leads to the more valuable insight. 

The current business aviation market exhibits many characteristics we have seen before: robust demand, constrained supply, strong aircraft values, and a division of customers – some willing to wait rather than compromise, others eager to snap up what they can to satiate their needs for near-term private lift. Those are familiar ingredients from previous upcycles. Yet this time feels different. 

Business aviation is increasingly recognized for what it truly delivers: the ability to create more value from the one resource that can never be replenished: time. Simultaneously, global entrepreneurship, HNWI wealth creation, and unprecedented intergenerational wealth transfers may represent structural forces that will expand the total addressable market and the population with the means to access business aviation for years to come. Whether they do so depends to some extent on whether we can “bend the curve” and grow our products and services businesses at rates well above what we see today. This is really on us. 

Which raises an intriguing question. 

Are we simply in another exceptionally strong business cycle, or are we witnessing the evolution of a fundamentally different market? Have the rules of the game truly changed, or are we interpreting familiar patterns through the lens of extraordinary times? 

The answers matter. Not only to aircraft manufacturers, suppliers, financiers, products and services providers, and investors, but to everyone whose business depends on the long-term health of this global industry. 

One interpretation argues for caution near the top of an all-too-familiar business up cycle. The other could alter how we think about demand, capacity, product and service strategy, and long-term investment and ROI. 

History reminds us that enduring industries are rarely defined by the challenges they face but by their ability to adapt. Business aviation operates within one of the harshest and unforgiving industrial and operating environments in the world: where safety is paramount, certification is rigorous, barriers to entry are substantial, and excellence cannot be rushed. Those characteristics inevitably constrain how quickly capacity can respond to growing demand, but they also create enduring competitive strengths. 

Perhaps that is the pattern most worth watching. For all of today's uncertainty and diverging signals, business aviation is exhibiting many of the characteristics of an industry built for the long term. Every day, questions about whether business aviation is investable are being displaced by more interesting ones. 

So where should we place our bets on the next waves of technology and innovation? How can we recognize the emerging patterns—and attract, engage, and partner with the talent, capital, and ideas—that will help bend the curve and expand business aviation's total addressable market? The future will not simply arrive on its own; it will be shaped by the choices we make today. At RVA, we believe the leaders who remain intellectually curious, embrace disciplined innovation, and invest ahead of the curve will be the ones who define what comes next. Let's be ready for it. And let's not forget to leave the porch light on. The future is coming home.  

Evidence from our recently completed Q2 2026 RVantage Global Business & General Aviation Survey reveals a business aviation community that is remarkably divided in the way they describe the current market conditions for business aviation.

Despite strong and enduring demand signals across much of the industry, business aircraft owners, operators, and key industry stakeholders remain sharply split on where business aviation stands in the current business cycle. The question they are asked is: “How would you describe the current market conditions for business aviation?” Response options are: “A. Past the low point”, “B. At the low point”, and “C. Not yet at the low point”. We label respondents who select response “A” as “Optimists” and those who select response “C” as “Pessimists”. Subtracting Pessimists from Optimists, we derive an indicator of current market conditions for business aviation, ranging from +100% (Highest) to -100% (Lowest).  This Net Optimism indicator was just +3.9 percentage points in Q2 2026, reflecting a clearly divided business aviation community at the mid-year point in 2026. 

Looking beneath the global averages reveals more interesting patterns, with Net Optimism varying significantly by region, aircraft size segment, annual utilization, and other demographics including job title, decision-making role and responsibility.  

Viewed from a distance, business aviation can appear to be a single market moving in a common direction. Look beneath the surface, however, and a far more intricate picture begins to emerge. It resembles less a single canvas than a finely woven tapestry—countless threads, each with its own color, texture, and direction, combining to create something far more complex than the sum of its parts. Some threads reflect confidence, others caution. Some are bright with opportunity, while others reveal markets under greater pressure. Together, they create the remarkable industry we call business aviation. 

Our latest RVantage global survey provides compelling evidence of that complexity. While business aviation continues to benefit from resilient demand, healthy order backlogs, strong aircraft values, and historically low inventories of high-quality pre-owned aircraft, industry participants are far from unanimous in their outlook. The chart accompanying this article reveals a market that is almost evenly divided on where business aviation stands in the current business cycle. Looking beneath the surface reveals an even more interesting pattern: confidence generally strengthens with the size of aircraft operated and, perhaps unexpectedly, among respondents based outside North America. 

That should not be entirely surprising. Many business aircraft operators operate just one aircraft. The decision to acquire, upgrade, or sell an aircraft is amongst the largest capital commitments they may likely ever make. These are infrequent, highly consequential decisions made in a market characterized by comparatively low transaction volumes, strong brand loyalties, reasonably high switching costs, and significant information asymmetries. Fleet operators and owners of large-cabin aircraft often evaluate market opportunities differently than entrepreneurs and privately owned businesses, reflecting differences in mission requirements, investment horizons, risk tolerance, and cost of capital. 

Unlike the scheduled airline industry, where success is commonly measured by low unit costs, high load factors, and increasing passenger yields, business aviation operates according to a much broader set of dynamics. Technology, wealth creation, financing conditions, customer experience, aircraft utility, entrepreneurial confidence—and yes, human emotion—all play important roles. 

Perhaps that is why the most valuable insights rarely come from a single statistic or headline. They emerge by recognizing the patterns woven through the fabric of the market—patterns that help explain not only where business aviation is today, but where it may be headed tomorrow. In our work at RVA, asking "What could this mean?" is a good place to start. Asking "What else could this mean?" is often where the real strategic insight begins. 

Conventional wisdom has an interesting way of becoming accepted fact. Repeat an observation often enough, and it may eventually become something that "everybody knows" that few then pause to question. 

Business aviation has its share of these so-called rules of thumb. One of the most enduring is that fuel prices matter far less to business aircraft owners and operators than they do to airline operators. The thinking is that fuel is just one component of the total cost of operation and ownership, and for many users the value of their time, schedule flexibility, simplified security, and enhanced productivity far outweigh the cost of a few additional gallons of Jet A. For a mid-size business jet operator in the U.S. flying 350 flight hours per year, fuel may represent ~30% of total annual operating costs. While lower than that of a mainline U.S. carrier’s B737 airliner flown 10x more hours a year, the airline passes fuel price increases to its customers, as do business jet charter and fractional programs.  

Our latest RVantage Survey suggests that the story is more nuanced. Fuel prices - and their volatility – may be more important to business aviation than conventional wisdom otherwise suggests.   

Almost 43% of Q2 2026 RVantage Survey respondents agreed that recent increases in fuel prices have caused them to reduce their business aircraft flight activity. While they were outnumbered by the 53% of respondents who disagreed, are these survey results evidence of another “Great Divide”? 

While these survey results are inadequate to overturn accepted thinking, they do encourage us to revisit it. Could it be that business aircraft fuel prices are about affordability and uncertainty? Is the probable driver of lower flight activity the higher cost of fuel, its recent rapid rate of change, concern about fuel availability, or something else entirely? These are good questions that more detailed research can discover. 

We know that energy markets rarely move in isolation. Higher fuel prices often coincide with broader inflationary pressures, increased interest rates, geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and more fundamental questions about the direction of the global economy. Recent events centered on the Strait of Hormuz remind us how quickly a local or regional military conflict can ripple through energy markets and global supply chains, causing disruptions and spreading uncertainty and fear into people and markets. 

Uncertainty and volatility have become defining characteristics of today's business environment, and numerous indicators track stock market, bond yield, sales, and economic policy uncertainty. Could a broader challenge be that we have become desensitized to relentless streams of "breaking news"? Near-constant headlines of the extraordinary can begin to seem ordinary, making the separation of noise from the essential need-to-know signals a difficult task.  

Today's leaders are surrounded by more information than at any point in history. Markets generate an endless stream of data, forecasts, headlines, opinions, and commentary. The challenge has shifted from obtaining information to digesting and making sense of its key insights. 

Data inform but rarely explain. The most valuable insights emerge by connecting seemingly unrelated signals, recognizing recurring patterns, challenging long-held assumptions, and asking better questions: What could this mean? What else could this mean? How certain are we? 

Today, intellectual agility is becoming one of an organization's greatest competitive advantages. Remaining curious, embracing new evidence, challenging assumptions, and adapting to changing conditions while remaining anchored to core principles is the essence of strategic thinking. 

At RVA, we help business aviation leaders navigate uncertainty with confidence. We combine disciplined curiosity, evidence-based analysis, and strategic judgment to connect the dots, identify emerging patterns, and illuminate the decisions that matter most. That's our True North. 

Be in the room where it happens - join titans of the industry in Washington, D.C. for the inaugural RVA Summit at the historic Mayflower Hotel, on February 15-16, 2027! RVA Summit 2027 brings together leading owners, operators, financiers, and industry experts in business aviation for a day and a half of high-level discussions, insights, and connections. Scheduled for your convenience on the eve of GAMA’s State of the Industry Press Conference, RVA Summit 2027 promises to attract a large number of senior leaders from across the business aviation industry. Join us!

Rolland Vincent Associates – RVA – is an independent strategic advisory firm that provides proprietary market intelligence, forecasting, and executive counsel to senior leaders across the global business aviation industry. Since its founding in 2009, RVA has earned the trust and loyalty of a blue-chip international clientele through its independent, data-driven, and pragmatic approach to understanding the forces shaping business aviation. 

For more information, please contact: 

Rollie Vincent
President
Rolland Vincent Associates - RVA
Tel: 1-972-439-2069
e-mail: [email protected]

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© Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC 2026